DTN Grain Close: More Favorable Forecast Sends Markets Lower

Mature soybean pods ready for harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

An outlook for warmer temperatures and mostly drier weather pressured corn, soybeans and all three wheats to lower closes Tuesday. The International Monetary Fund added to the bearish tone with a lower world GDP growth estimate for 2019.


Midday: Quiet mostly lower trade at midday.


Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower with harvest pressure and overbought conditions encouraging a pull back at midday. Harvest will remain slow but should show progress through the end of the week before wetter weather returns to the east. The ethanol margins have improved to start the week with ethanol futures lower this morning with idled plants still needing a return to harvest basis to restart.

Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. South American corn planting is running behind normal. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 470,612 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show slightly lower conditions with maturity still well behind normal.

On the December contract support is at the 10-day at $3.91, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 4.03.


Soybeans are narrowly mixed with trade still chopping around the upper end of the range with overbought conditions and harvest pressure battling improved nearby demand. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower and oil is 60 to 70 points higher. Crush margins remain good. Economically, U.S. export competitiveness remains improved, but remains at a steep currency disadvantage to South America with harvest needed to boost competitiveness.

Bean basis is should see pressure as combines roll through midweek before rains return. South America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the months with some weather issues remaining and planting pace solidly behind. Weekly crop progress is expected show slightly lower conditions and maturity still well behind normal, with export inspections softer at 954,881 metric tons, along with 142,579 metric tons.

On the November chart support is the 200-day at $9.10 with the upper Bollinger band at 9.45, and the spike high at 9.45 3/4 as resistance.


Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade giving back the Monday gains with little fresh news. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 85 cents with choppy action continuing with mostly steady to slightly wider. Remaining spring wheat harvest will likely be stopped with the incoming cold front.

The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 28 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea origin with weekly inspections range bound at 462,651 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show winter wheat planting and emergence inline with average.

The December Kansas City chart support is the $4.07-4.11 area where the 10,20, and 50-day moving averages are clustered with the upper Bollinger Band at 4.22 as resistance, then the 4.27 3/4 recent high.

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