Crush volume in Argentina continues to trend higher in 2019 as soybean production returns to normal following last year’s drought. Crush volume is currently running 24 percent above last year’s pace and is projected to be the second-largest local marketing year (April/March) volume on record.
The crush forecast is projected to reach 43.1 million tons, 18 percent above last year, with a further increase expected in 2020/21 to 44 million tons. Export demand for soybean meal and oil remains strong with rising meal demand in Iran and oil demand in China and India helping to propel higher crush.
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However, slowing exports of biodiesel and uncertainty regarding future government policy continue to weigh on the forecast.
With the higher crush, exports of soybean meal and oil are also projected to rise. Soybean meal exports are forecast to rise 12 percent from last year to 29 million tons while soybean oil is forecast to reach 5.7 million tons, 24 percent above the previous year.
However, biodiesel exports are trending to their lowest level since 2015, the last time exports fell below 1.0 million tons. Biodiesel exports are constrained by limits on trade to the European Union and high duties on exports to the United States.