The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced total use, and rising ending stocks. Wheat production is cut 18.5 million bushels to 1,962 million based on the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued on September 30. Projected imports are lowered 15 million bushels to 120 million on a slow pace to date.
The NASS Grain Stocks report raised 2018/19 ending stocks 8 million bushels and estimated first quarter 2019/20 stocks at 2,385 million bushels, down fractionally from the previous year. These stocks imply first quarter feed and residual use is similar to last year. Annual 2019/20 feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 140 million but remain above last year’s revised 89.8 million.
Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 950 million on reduced competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are projected at 1,043 million bushels, up 29 million from the previous month, and the season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.70.
Global 2019/20 wheat supplies are raised fractionally with decreased production offset by higher beginning stocks. World production is lowered 0.3 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton cut to Australia’s crop on further drought effects. The United States is lowered 0.5 million tons, and Canada and Serbia are each reduced 0.3 million tons.
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Partly offsetting are production increases of 1.0 million tons for the EU and 0.7 million tons for Turkmenistan, both on updated harvest reports. Projected global exports for 2019/20 are lowered 1.2 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia reflecting their smaller crop. Total imports are decreased 1.1 million tons with the United States, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, and Kyrgyzstan accounting for most of the decline.
World wheat consumption is reduced 1.1 million tons primarily on a 0.8-million-ton reduction in U.S. feed and residual use. With supplies rising and use declining, global ending stocks are raised 1.3 million tons to a record 287.8 million.