WASDE Oilseeds: Reduced U.S. Soybean, Peanut, Cottonseed Production

Mature soybean pods ready for harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 107.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month with lower soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production partly offset by higher canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is forecast at 3.6 billion bushels, down 83 million, mainly on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected at 46.9 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from the September forecast.

Harvested area is reduced slightly to 75.6 million acres. Soybean supplies for 2019/20 are forecast at 4.5 billion bushels down 175 million on lower production and beginning stocks. With a small increase in soybean crush, ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 180 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel, up 50 cents reflecting smaller supplies. The soybean meal price is forecast at $325.00 per short ton, up $20.00. The soybean oil price forecast is raised 0.5 cents to 30.0 cents per pound.

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Global oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 574.8 million tons, down 4.6 million from last month on lower soybean, sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and peanut production. Global soybean production is projected at 339.0 million tons, down 2.4 million to a 4-year low, mainly reflecting lower production for the United States.

Global rapeseed production is forecast lower on reductions for Canada, Australia, the EU, and the United States. Canadian rapeseed production is reduced on lower yield prospects resulting from an unseasonably heavy snow and a season-ending freeze. Other production changes include lower sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan and Brazil, and higher cottonseed production for India.

With lower global oilseed supplies only partly offset by reduced crush, global oilseed stocks are projected at 109.8 million tons, down 4.6 million. Soybeans account for most of the change with lower stocks in the United States only partly offset by increases for Argentina and Brazil.

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