WASDE Coarse Grains: Reduced U.S. Corn Exports, Increased Feed, Residual Use

Photo: University of Tennessee

This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly lower production, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, greater feed and residual use, and lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.779 billion bushels, down 20 million as a decline in harvested area more than offsets an increased yield forecast.

Corn supplies are forecast down sharply from last month on a reduced crop and lower beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and U.S. price competitiveness. Corn used for ethanol is down 50 million bushels based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration during September.

Projected feed and residual use is up 125 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2018/19. Corn ending stocks for 2019/20 are lowered 261 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 20 cents to $3.80 per bushel.

Grain sorghum production is forecast lower from last month, with a 0.4-bushel-per-acre decline in yield to 73.9 bushels per acre and a reduction in harvested area. Barley and oat production estimates are updated based on the September 30 Small Grains report.

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Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is forecast virtually unchanged at 1,396.7 million tons. The 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, increased trade, and higher stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast modestly lower as an increase for Russia is more than offset by declines for Egypt and Syria. The projected corn yield for Russia is raised based on reported harvest results to date.

Corn exports are raised for Russia, with a more than offsetting decline for the United States. For 2018/19, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2019 based on record large shipments during the month of September. From July to September Brazil has exported close to 20 million tons of corn, nearly 50 percent above the previous high for the time period, with large shipments to important U.S. markets such as Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Colombia.

For 2019/20, corn imports are lowered for Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, and Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil, Canada, and the EU. Global corn stocks, at 302.6 million, are down 3.7 million from last month.

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