WADE Rice: Increased Domestic Supplies, Ending Stocks

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The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised as NASS increased the all rice production forecast by 1.3 million cwt to 188.6 million, all on a higher yield. The all rice yield is forecast at 7,616 pounds per acre, up 53 pounds from the previous forecast.

Higher yields for Arkansas, California, and Texas more than offset a lower yield for Louisiana. Projected 2019/20 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.3 million cwt to 37.1 million, still down 17 percent from last year. The projected 2019/20 all rice season-average farm price is reduced $0.20 per cwt to $13.00, compared to $12.00 for 2018/19.

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Global 2019/20 rice supplies are raised by 3.6 million tons to 669.6 million, mainly on higher projected production for India and Egypt. India’s production is raised by 2.0 million tons to 114.0 million, primarily based on the government’s First Advance Estimate of Production. Egypt’s production increased 1.3 million tons to 4.3 million on greater harvested area than previously estimated.

World 2019/20 consumption is raised by 1.3 million tons to 494.5 million, led by increased expected use in Egypt on higher domestic supplies. Global 2019/20 trade is increased 0.8 million tons to 45.9 million, mainly on higher exports by India with greater supplies. India is expected to remain the leading global rice exporter for the sixth consecutive year. Projected world ending stocks are up 2.4 million tons to a record 175.1 million with India and Egypt accounting for most of the increase.

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