DTN Grain Close: Corn Falls After WASDE Disappointment

Photo: Ohio State University

December corn dropped 14 cents after USDA reduced its estimate of U.S. ending corn stocks, but not as much as trade estimates expected. USDA made bullish adjustments to its estimates for soybeans, but November soybeans ended down a quarter-cent. All three wheats were lower in sympathy with corn.

 

Midday: Broadly weaker trade at midday.

CORN

Corn trade is 2 to 4 cents lower in quiet pre-report action with position squaring ongoing with overbought conditions. Drying will be needed to build harvest pace across the south to middle of the Belt, with the north likely facing a tough situation at the end of the week and some progress to the south. The ethanol margins are slightly better this morning with flat ethanol values and weaker corn.

Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. South American corn planting is underway, with second-crop shipments out of Brazil remaining active. The WASDE report is expected to show yields down to 167.5 BPA from last month, with carryout at 1.808 billion bushels, down sharply from last month at 2.2 billion.

Weekly export sales remained poor at 284,500 metric tons. On the December contract, support is at the 10-day at $3.88, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 3.99 which we are just below.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans is 1 to 2 cents lower with choppy action as trade looks for a catalyst to take us to new highs. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. Crush margins remain good. Economically U.S. export competitiveness remains improved, but remains at a steep currency disadvantage to South America with more China buying at 398,000 metric tons.

Bean basis is seeing some pressure from expanded harvest through midweek. South America has the beginnings of planting but remains behind the normal pace so far. The WASDE report is expected to show yields down slightly to 47.2 BPA, with carryout at 489 million bushels down from 640 million.

Weekly export sales remained strong at 2.09 million metric tons of soybeans with 352,000 of meal, and 2,000 of oil. On the November chart, support is the 200-day at $9.10 with the upper Bollinger band remaining resistance at $9.31, the upper Bollinger band, which we are tested this a.m.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is mixed with Minneapolis trade leading overnight with all contracts back towards the upper end of the recent ranges. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 86 cents with choppy action continuing. Remaining spring wheat harvest will likely be stopped with the incoming cold front.

The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 22 cents from 13 cents at the low this week. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea origin with weekly sales showed some improvement at 521,900 metric tons. The WASDE report is expected to show wheat carryout at 960 million bushels off from 1.14 billion last month.

The December Kansas City chart support is the $4.07-4.09 area where the 10,20, and 50-day moving averages are clustered with the upper Bollinger Band at 4.16 resistance, which we are testing overnight.

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