DTN Grain Close: Weather Risk Turns Markets Green

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images

December corn closed up 8 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 5 1/4 cents Tuesday, helped by concerns of immature crops being threatened by winter weather in the northwestern U.S. Plains this week. All three wheats were also higher with spring wheat crops trapped in bad harvest weather.


Broadly firmer trade with support from weather at midday.


Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade testing the upper end of the range with support from the weather inbound later in the week and the slow pace of crop development this fall. Drying will be needed to build harvest pace across the South to middle of the belt, with the north likely facing a tough situation at the end of the week.

The Ethanol margins are stable to start the week with harvest progress likely to support production through basis action with blender margins off the recent highs with ethanol futures gaining this morning. Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. South American corn planting is underway, with second-crop shipments out of Brazil remaining active.

Weekly crop progress is likely to show conditions 1 percentage point lower to 56% good to excellent and 15% poor to very poor, 93% dented vs. 99% on average, 58% mature vs. 85% on average, 15% harvested vs. 27% on average. On the December contract support is at the 50-day at $3.80, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 3.94 which we have tested this morning.


Soybeans is 4 to 6 cents higher with trade optimism flickering again ahead of the scheduled talks this week, and weather offsetting that at midday helping to reverse early losses. Meal is 4.00 to 5.00 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. Crush margins remain good.

Economically U.S. export competitiveness remains improved, but remains at a steep currency disadvantage to South America. Bean basis remains flat in the interior until harvest expands more. South America has the beginnings of planting underway with mixed rains this week again.

Weekly crop progress showed conditions down 1 percentage point at 53% good to excellent, and 15% poor to very poor, with 72% dropping leaves vs. 87% on average, and 14% harvested vs. 34% on average. On the November chart support is the 10-day at $9.06 with the upper Bollinger Band remaining resistance at $9.24, the upper Bollinger band.


Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher with Chicago regaining the lead from the Minneapolis and Kansas City contracts at midday with good spillover support and an active world market sourcing from the Black Sea. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 88 cents with steady to slightly wider action to start the week.

Remaining spring wheat harvest will likely be stopped with the incoming cold front. The corn/HRW spread has narrowed to 13-15 cents pushing wheat back towards rations. Winter wheat planting was 52% complete vs. 56% on average, with 26% emerged same as average, and spring wheat 91% harvested vs. 99% on average.

The December Kansas City chart support is at the $4.00 area with resistance at 4.07-4.09 where nearby resistance is clustered.

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