DTN Cotton Close: Lower on Poor Sentiment

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The cotton market continues to seesaw about as it remains caught between end-of-the-quarter speculative short-covering and the distant roar of a massive crop coming. Thus, the December market has been nearly paralyzed in its ability to commence any sort of trend.

Thursday morning’s USDA reported better weekly sales and exports. Essentially, the numbers were as follows: Net sales of 155,200 bales for 2019/2020 were up 83% from the previous week and 33% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Pakistan (35,400), Guatemala (30,300), Vietnam (19,800, including 2,200 bales switched from Japan, 4,300 bales switched from Hong Kong and 900 bales switched from China), Colombia (16,200) and China (14,400).

Reductions were for Hong Kong (4,300). For 2020-21, net sales of 12,800 bales were reported for Guatemala (5,900), Honduras (3,500), and Colombia (3,400). Exports of 175,900 bales were up 6% from the previous week, but down 4% from the prior four-week average. Exports were primarily to Vietnam (48,700), Indonesia (25,200), Turkey (17,000), Bangladesh (13,200), and India (12,200).

Net sales of Pima totaling 10,300 bales were down 35% from the previous week, but up 62% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (4,800), India (2,700), China (1,300), Pakistan (900), and Honduras (300). Reductions were for Hong Kong (200). Exports of 3,100 bales were down 58% from the previous week and 54% from the prior four-week average. The primary destinations were India (1,800), Peru (400), El Salvador (300), Turkey (300), and Japan (200).

October cotton remains in its delivery period, but thus far there have been zero notices tendered.

Next Monday, USDA will issue another crop condition and harvest progress report. For the month of October is the official kickoff for harvest. Supposedly, the crop is estimated to be near 22.00 million bales in size, which points to the fact the bulk of the crop has yet to be gathered. Thus, the potential for selling pressure is just over the next hill.

For Thursday, December cotton closed at 60.28 cents, down 0.17 cent, March finished at 60.99 cents off 0.18 cent and December 2020 ended at 63.39 cents, down 0.35 cent.

Estimated volume was 17,617 contracts.

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