November soybeans fell back 10 1/4 cents Friday after President Donald Trump told a press conference he does not expect a trade deal with China before the 2020 election. Corn and winter wheat ended with smaller losses, but December Minneapolis wheat was up 4 cents with further concerns about crop quality from this year’s late harvest.
Midday: Spring wheat leads mixed trade at midday.
Corn is flat to 2 cents higher with trade still struggling to extend the upper end of the range but finding light buying during the day session. Weather remains a short-term non-issue with warm temps and some wet weather in areas to move along late crop development and maturity.
Corn basis is expected to continue to see pressure with harvest underway in more areas, and more coming soon. Ethanol futures are slightly lower with improved margins holding on, but unleaded has eased lower this a.m. The export wire has remained quiet this week with the rally.
On the December contract support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger Band above trade at 3.77.
Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower with trade staying within the recent range with little fresh news. Meal is narrowly mixed and oil is 30 to 40 points lower. Crush margins remain good, but the bull argument needs a positive export story with last week’s sales to China concluded.
Economically U.S. export competitiveness is improving which may be just as important as trade negotiations to get some business done, although the real is testing the lows again today. Bean basis remains flat in the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws closer with dry weather to start, potentially delaying things early on.
On the November chart we near support at the 100-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger Band at $9.05, and the 200-day at 9.13 as resistance.
Wheat trade is 1 cent lower to a dime higher with Minneapolis trade leading on the quality concerns. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is 77 cents, down 7 cents from the high this week.
The corn/HRW spread is hanging around the 35-40 cent area. So Kansas City wheat is competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more buyers to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness still in place for the southern plains. Winter wheat planting should expand more this week, but the market is not providing incentives to plant.
The December Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $4.00 1/2, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.15, which we are just below.