DTN Grain Close: Spring Wheat Higher on Crop Concerns

Wheat harvest. Photo: K-State Research and Extension - Creative Commons

December Minneapolis wheat finished up 7 cents Thursday with increased concerns about unharvested crops being exposed to rain in the fields. Other grains were mixed with row crops a little higher and winter wheat slightly lower.


Midday: The mixed trade at midday with soybeans and spring wheat leading.


Corn is flat to 1 cent higher with trade still struggling to extend the upper end of the range and light two-sided action today. Weather remains a short-term non-issue with warm temps and some wet weather in areas to move along late-crop development and maturity before trending drier towards October with some of the storms slowing early harvest in the West.

Corn basis is expected to continue to see pressure with harvest underway in more areas, and more coming soon. Ethanol futures are slightly lower with improved margins holding on. Weekly export sales were strong at 1.46 million metric tons.

On the December contract support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger band above trade at 3.77.


Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents higher with a new bullish catalyst needed to move trade through $9.00 nearby. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 higher and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. Crush margins remain good, but the bull argument needs a positive export story with weekly export sales very strong with the China buying at 1.73 million metric tons of soybeans, 93,700 metric tons of old meal, 342,100 of new meal, and 20,600 of oil combined.

Economically, U.S. export competitiveness is improving which may be just as important as trade negotiations to get some business done. Bean basis remains flat in the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws closer with dry weather to start, potentially delaying things early on.

On the November chart we near support at the 100-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger Band at 8.98, and the 200-day at 9.15 as resistance.


Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 8 cents higher with Minneapolis trade leading on quality concerns. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is 77 cents, down 7 cents from the high this week. The corn/HRW spread is hanging around the 35-40 cent area.

So Kansas City wheat is competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more buyers to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness still in place for the southern plains. The weekly export sales were disappointing at 286,600 metric tons.

The December Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $3.99 1/2, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.13 which we have tested today.

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