DTN Grain Close: Markets Slide Lower as Weather Stays Safely Warm

Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

Grains across the board fell lower Tuesday as late-planted row crops continue to find warm weather ahead of them. October crude oil is trading lower with notions Saudi oil production may be able to bounce back in a few weeks.

 

Broadly weaker trade at midday.

CORN

Corn is 4 to 6 cents lower with trade giving back the Monday gains in turnaround Tuesday action with little fresh bullish news. Weather remains a short-term non-issue with warm conditions and wetter weather to the north before trending drier.

Corn basis should start to see more pressure with harvest underway in more areas with the warm weather helping to push things along. Ethanol futures are lightly weaker with unleaded down nearly a dime.

Weekly crop progress showed steady conditions at 55% good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor, 93% in the dough vs. 98% on average, 68% dented vs. 87% on average, 18% mature vs 38% on average, and 4% harvested vs. 7% on average.

On the December contract support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger band above trade at 3.77.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents lower with trade pulling back with little fresh bullish news, and trade moving into overbought conditions yesterday. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Crush margins remain positive overall with oil doing the heavy lifting early in the week.

The positive export story needs China coming forward as US export competitiveness improves on the world market with active bookings off the PNW the last few days with 260,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China. Bean basis remains flat in the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws closer.

Weekly crop progress showed conditions slightly lower at 54% good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor, with 95% setting pods vs. 100% on average, and 15% dropping leaves vs. 38% on average.

On the November chart we are have support at the 10-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger Band at 8.98, and the 200-day at 9.15 as resistance.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents lower with spillover pressure from the row crops and little other fresh news. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 79, pulling back from the high end of the range again. The corn/HRW spread is hanging around the 36-cent area, starting to widen again.

Kansas City wheat is competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more buyers to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness improving again.

Spring wheat harvest is on the home stretch at 76% complete vs. 93% on average. Winter wheat planting was 8% vs. 12% on average.

The December Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $3.99 3/4, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.13.

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