December corn, November soybeans and all three wheats were up Monday along with most commodities. October crude oil is trading up over $7 a barrel after drone attacks crippled Saudi oil production on Saturday.
Midday: Wheat and corn lead firmer trade at midday.
Corn is 3 to 5 cents higher with buying building during the day session. Weather remains a short-term non-issue with higher temps and wetter weather to the north before trending drier. Corn basis should start to see more pressure with harvest underway in more areas.
The expected ethanol policy announcements have yet to come this week with hints towards larger quotas to offset waivers, with blender margins seeing a big boost from the the jump in unleaded this a.m, and ethanol futures 2 cents higher.
Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions with some catch-up in maturity with the warmer weather. The weekly export inspections remained soft at 421,083 metric tons. On the December contract, support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger Band above trade at 3.77.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher with trade initially moving higher, but failing to hold above $9.00 again. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower and oil is 70 to 80 points higher. Crush margins remain positive overall with meal testing $300 a ton again overnight before fading.
The positive export story needs China coming forward as U.S. export competitiveness improves on the world market with active bookings off the PNW the last few days with 256,000 metric tons on the daily wire today. Bean basis remains flat in the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws closer.
Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions, and some gains in maturity, with export inspections disappointing at 666,490 metric tons. On the November chart we are have support at the 50-day at $8.84 and the upper Bollinger Band at 8.91, with resistance the 200-day at 9.15.
Wheat trade has found better buying at 2 to 8 cents higher with Kansas City leading at midday with spillover support and seasonal action. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 81, back at the high end of the range.
The corn/HRW spread is tight, hanging around the 34 cent area, starting to narrow again. Kansas City wheat is competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more buyers to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness improving again.
Spring wheat harvest is on the home stretch. Weekly crop progress should show spring wheat harvest near the end, with winter wheat planting starting to get underway soon. The weekly export inspections were rangebound at 459,258 metric tons.
The December Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $3.99 3/4, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.13.