WASDE Rice: Reduced Demand, Lower U.S. Stocks

Rice harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice this month is for much lower supplies, reduced domestic use and exports, and lower ending stocks. The August 23 NASS Rice Stocks report indicated lower 2018/19 ending stocks than previously estimated, thereby reducing 2019/20 beginning stocks by 5.7 million cwt.

In the September Crop Production report, NASS reduced the 2019/20 crop by 18.1 million cwt to 187.3 million on lower harvested area and yields. NASS incorporated FSA certified acreage data this month, and all rice planted area is lowered by 216,000 acres, the result of excessive precipitation at planting time especially in the upper Mississippi River Delta.

Long-grain planted area is lowered 278,000 acres while combined medium- and short-grain area is up 62,000 acres. The average all rice yield is down 14 pounds per acre to 7,563 pounds. Long-grain production is cut 22.4 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production is raised 4.4 million.

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All rice supplies are lowered 23.4 million cwt to 261.8 million, which is 7 percent below last year. Domestic and residual use and exports are each lowered 6.0 million cwt on the lower supplies. All rice ending stocks are lowered 11.4 million cwt to 35.8 million and the season-average farm price is raised $1.00 per cwt to $13.20.

Global 2019/20 supplies are lowered 3.1 million tons, led by a 3.0-million-ton crop reduction for India and a 0.6-million-ton reduction for the United States. Beginning stocks are raised 0.5 million tons.

World 2019/20 exports are lowered 1.5 million tons with India down 0.8 million tons on the smaller crop and Thailand down 0.5 million tons on a slow pace and lack of price competitiveness in international markets.

Global consumption is cut 1.2 million tons, and world ending stocks are lowered 1.9 million tons to 172.7 million, but both remain record large.

Full report.

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