DTN Cotton Close: Treads Water Ahead of WASDE

Photo: Fred Miller, University of Arkansas

The market traded both sides of unchanged as it awaits Thursday weekly sales and exports and the all-important September supply-demand report (WASDE). To the former, China has been a recent canceler of previously purchased bales. Such action continues to be not financially bearish to the market, but psychologically negative as well. To the latter, the trade is anticipating reduction in 2019 production, as well as exports. USDA’s action ought to result in a fractional lowering of domestic carryout.

Speculators have been easing out of their net short position. At their peak, they held a bearish position equivalent to 4.90 million bales. Right now, it’s estimated they are collectively net short some 39,000 contracts. The latter number is a pretty stout position, but under the right fundamental circumstances, it could provide enough bullish fuel for a decent rally. Perhaps an October trade agreement with China would be the cause.

For Wednesday, December cotton closed at 59.37 cents, up 0.03 cent, March ended at 60.06 cents, up 0.07 cent and December 2020 went out at 62.45 cents, up 0.17 cent. Wednesday’s estimated volume was 15,825 contracts traded.

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