Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with early buying giving way to renewed selling and fresh lows during the day session. Ethanol margins remain under pressure again to start the week, which will likely continue until improvement is seen on blend rates and refinery waivers.
Corn basis remains mixed to weaker overall with harvest getting closer but still too far away in some areas with board prices low. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report showed 58% good to excellent, 13% poor to very poor, up 1 percentage point, with 81% in the dough vs. 93% on average, 41% dented vs. 63% on average, and 6% mature vs. 20% on average.
On the December, nearby chart support is likely the $3.56 1/2 low with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.43 below that and resistance atbthe 10-day at $3.67, with the 20-day next at $3.78.
Soybean futures are 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade testing the upper end of the recent range again overnight before fading. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points lower.
Crush margins remain positive overall, with oil staying towards the upper end of the range, and meal finding support at $290 to open the week. Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian real has found support this morning versus the dollar, but remains near record lows.
The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for soybeans with maturity remaining the biggest concern. USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report kept conditions steady at 55% good to excellent, and 13% poor to very poor, with 96% blooming vs. 100% on average, and 86% setting pods vs. 96% on average.
November chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.54, with the next round up near the 10-day average of $8.67, which we are trading around at midday, with the 20-day average just above the market at $8.72, then the upper Bollinger band at 8.89.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser. He can be reached at email@example.com
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