DTN Cotton Close: Slightly Higher, Thanks To An Oversold Bounce

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The market finished in the black Wednesday, ignoring improved crop conditions and focusing instead on its oversold situation. Speculators remain record net-short as the December market posted new life-of-contract lows just last week.

The seasonal charts do allow for some sort of a September rally. However, if and when the September rally tops, then the historical charts point to a deeper fall-harvest low into the October/November time period.

To that end, the height of any September rally wil

l be predicated on how the 2019 harvest unfolds, particularly if yields are less than initially expected.

With Hurricane Dorian, Bales Are At Risk

Traders continue to monitor Hurricane Dorian, as there is still a chance it will make landfall in the Carolinas. Of course, eveyone hopes the storm bends farther right and out to sea. In 2018, South Carolina produced 420,000 bales, and sister North Carolina produced some 702,000 bales. Thus, potentially about a million bales are at risk, without considering Virginia’s production.

Wednesday, December cotton settled at 58.21 cents, up 0.35 cent, March closed at 58.83 cents, up 0.27 cent and December 2020 closed at 61.36 cents, up 0.10 cent. Estimated volume was 18,873 contracts traded.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.

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