The cotton market was sharply lower overnight as it suffered the fallout from last week’s back-and-forth tariffs punches between the U.S. and China. However, the overnight news that China was wanting to restart the talks came as underlying support and pulled the market off its lows.
In fact, December cotton was able to close back above its August 5 low after piercing it earlier in the session. Such was a small technical victory, although the trend of cotton remains down, and the sentiment remains soured.
Monday afternoon, USDA will issue its latest crop conditions numbers. Last week’s good-to-excellent rating was 49%, versus a 61% good-to-excellent reading of a few weeks back. Of course, rain is crucial in many locales to fill out the crop. To that end, some mid-Atlantic producers are eyeing Tropical Storm Dorian as a potential rainmaker.
The hope of a U.S.-China deal, as well as a trade treaty sealed on Saturday with Japan, rallied the U.S. Dollar from its huge decline of Friday. Of course, a strong dollar is always a long-term inhibitor to U.S. exports. Oddly, USDA just increased its export target by 200,000 bales, taking it to 17.20 million bales.
For Monday, December cotton closed at 57.82 cents, down 0.39 cent, March was at 58.74 cents, off 0.41 cent and December 2020 finished at 61.98 cents, down 0.51 cent. Monday’s estimated volume was 28,472 contacts.