December Chicago and KC wheats both closed up 3 3/4 cents Thursday, showing a little benefit from a higher start for exports in 2019-20. November soybeans ended down 4 1/4 cents and December corn was up 3/4 cent while scattered showers worked across the southern Midwest.
Corn is narrowly mixed with trade trying to build on the solid close yesterday with two-sided trade so far. Weather should continue to remain a short-term non-issue as the crop tour wraps up today, with few surprises found so far. Ethanol margins remain poor with blenders in the best position currently, with more plants likely to be idled with rumors of the refinery waivers to be reversed.
Basis remains mixed overall with harvest getting closer. Weekly export sales remain soft at 119,300 metric tons old crop, and 301,600 of new crop.
On the September nearby chart support is likely the $3.59 low with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.47 below that with resistance the 10-day at $3.70.
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with trade again trying to find some buying support at the lower end of the range and to finally put two positive finishes in a row together with early strength evaporating again. Meal is 0.50 to 1.50 higher, and oil is 5 to 15 points lower.
Crush margins remain positive overall, with oil staying towards the upper end of the range. Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian real is trying to firm off the lows again, with local prices an effective premium to much of the US. The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for soybeans as well coming forward.
The trade situation remains little changed as well. Weekly export sales showed some improvement at 25,900 metric tons of old crop, 792,600 metric tons of new crop, 118,600 metric tons of old meal, 13,400 of new meal, and 2,200 of oil.
September chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.42, with the next round up the 10-day $8.65 which we tested again today.
Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 3 cents higher at midday with light buying with all contracts trying to shake off oversold conditions. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 75 after a high of 90 cents last week and a low of 71 cents this week with Kansas City gaining slightly overnight. The corn/HRW spread is wider, back to 27 cents.
Kansas City wheat is now back to competitive on the world market trading as well as into feed rations. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter wheat just about wrapped up, with Europe progressing as well. The dollar remains near the upper end of the range, limiting upside potential. Weekly export sales showed improvement at 594,600 metric tons.
The September Kansas City chart support is the new low at 3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the 10-day at $3.91 which we are just below.