DTN Cotton Open: Lower on Poor Sales

Photo: Fred Miller, University of Arkansas

The market was all hyped for a strong exports sales report, but that was not the case. Last week when both crop seasons were combined, total sales were 329,000 bales plus. Thursday, adding both seasons only yielded 164,500 bales. Anyone can grasp that mathematical disappointment.

A summary of USDA report is as follows: net sales of 164,000 bales for 2019/2020 were primarily for Indonesia (50,400), Vietnam (36,100), Peru (24,000), Turkey (10,900), and Malaysia (8,900). Reductions were reported for Hong Kong (8,600) and China (600).

For 2020/2021, net sales were 500 bales, as Japan bought 1,200 bales, while Bangladesh cancelled 700 bales. Weekly Exports of 344,000 RB were primarily to Vietnam (81,800), Bangladesh (40,700), India (39,600), Turkey (32,700), and China (31,300).

Net sales reductions of Pima totaling 5,100 bales, resulted in increases for Bangladesh (900), Thailand (400), and Peru (200), were more than offset by reductions from China (6,700). Exports of 8,400 bales were primarily to India (5,800), Egypt (900), El Salvador (600), and China (400).

Some traders are beginning to worry about 2019 production as adverse field conditions are gripping several large areas, primarily Texas. With cumulative sales running ahead of last year’s pace, and with the massive net short position being carried by speculators, no question a sizable rally can happen.

Support for December Cotton stands at 58.68 cents and 57.27 cents, with resistance 60.25 cents and 61.70 cents. Overnight estimated volume is 3,996 contracts.

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