The market finished surprisingly higher Wednesday, although cotton remains confined in a congestive pattern. Holding a December chart out at arm’s length, one readily sees the massive negative trend unfolding since Easter, but also how lately, ICE Futures have been trading in a tight, narrow pattern. Of course, some traders see such formation as either bottoming action for an eventual rally, while others may view it as the bear catching his breath before ultimately trading lower.
Thursday, USDA will publish its latest weekly sales and exports information. Of course, with the demand for cotton under duress, the market needs to see stronger business with other counties as China is out of the picture.
To date, speculators remain firmly in control of the trend. Over the course of this season, they have evolved from a net short status to one of being record net short. In fact, they have been record net short since May. Although their stance is analogous to that of an overloaded boat, they have yet to tip it over, and cause a rally. Still, from the tariff highs of June 2018, the current bear market is 63 weeks in duration.
Wednesday, December cotton settled at 59.94 cents, up 80, March is 60.66 cents, plus 58, and December 2020 closed at 63.25 cents, up 16 ticks. Today’s estimated volume was 20,700 contracts.