After a week of lower trading, pressured by USDA’s higher corn crop estimate Monday, December corn finished up 9 3/4 cents Friday with soybeans and all three wheats also higher. The DTN/Progressive Farmer Digital Yield Tour, powered by Gro Intelligence may have played a part, estimating lower national yields for both corn and soybeans than USDA currently expects.
Midday: Corn is 4 to 5 cents higher; soybeans are 3 to 5 cents higher and wheat is mixed. Outside markets are lightly positive.
Corn is 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade trying to get a second positive day to close out the week and ease oversold conditions that have built post USDA reports. The weather forecast looks to be a non-issue in the near term for most with rains slated for many areas and September extended forecasts showing warmer-than-normal temps for the belt, curbing frost concerns for the moment.
Ethanol margins remain poor with blenders seeing the most short-term benefits with ethanol futures edging higher this morning. Basis remains mixed overall.
On the September nearby chart, support is likely the $3.59 low with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.57 below that. Resistance is the 10-day at $3.89, reflecting the break this week.
Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents higher with the firmer overnight action continuing, with light follow through during the day session. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil is 5 to 15 points higher. NOPA crush came in Thursday at 168.093 million bushels, much above the 155.826 mb estimate.
Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian real is recovering off of fresh lows scored Thursday and the Argentina peso still at rock-bottom prices. The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for soybeans as well. USDA announced 296,500 metric tons sold to unknown for new crop.
The September chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.43 below that. The next level of resistance is the 10-day at $8.64, which we are testing at midday.
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday, with trade looking to see if the spread reversal for KC sticks from Thursday, along with oversold conditions starting to ease. The corn/hard red winter wheat spread has narrowed 6 cents this morning, after getting back to 30 on Thursday.
KC wheat is now back to competitive on the world market trading at a discount to the lowest offers in the most recent GASC tender. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter wheat just about wrapped up, with Europe continuing to move toward spring wheat harvest as well.
The September KC chart support is the new low at $3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the $4.00 area.