The cotton market closed slightly over the 60-cent mark for the first time in 10 sessions. Some traders believe such a move carries more of a psychological and technical effect than a net financial one. However, volume was less than enthusiastic, suggesting the dominant reason for buying was short-covering by speculators. Thus for the week, December Cotton is 1.23 cents higher, but off 3.50 cents monthly.
The market will continue to watch for any movement on the U.S./China trade war front. However, most stories coming out of the U.S. seem to be optimistic about a deal, while Chinese news media outlets paint a more contentious outlook. As of now new trade talks remain scheduled for September, but they can be cancelled at any time. The fact President Trump is tying a trade deal with China’s response to the Hong Kong situation is also an irritant to them.
On Monday, USDA will issue its latest crop conduction numbers, and some are expecting to see the 2019 crop move backwards in its development. The upcoming forecasts for much of the cotton belt shows continued high heat and little rainfall.
For Friday, December cotton closed at 60.13 cents, up 0.51 cent, March was 60.72 cents, up 0.48 cent, and December 2020 finished at 63.30 cents, up 0.34 cent. Friday’s estimated volume was 19,700 contracts.