November soybeans closed down 7 1/4 cents Thursday after USDA reported China and unknown destinations cancelled 20 million bushels (mb) of old-crop soybean export sales that were then added to the new-crop side for unknown. December KC wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents, helped by another good showing of wheat exports in Thursday morning’s report.
Midday: Trade is mixed at midday.
Corn has faded overnight gains for the second day in a row with the nearby contracts still looking to build and consolidate at support as we see increasingly oversold conditions. Outside markets have the dollar higher and crude lower, while the stock market is continuing to stabilize after trade tensions calmed yesterday afternoon.
The weather forecast looks to be a non-issue in the near term for most with rains slated for many areas and September extended forecasts showing warmer than normal temps for the belt curbing frost concerns for the moment. Ethanol margins remain poor with blenders seeing the most short term benefit.
Basis remains mixed with old crop basis firming from “protection” levels taken after Monday’s report. The weekly export sales remained soft at 56,100, and 307,600 metric tons old and new.
On the September nearby chart support is likely the $3.59 low with $3.54 below that, with resistance the lower Bollinger Band at $3.69.
Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents lower with the choppy trade continuing with little to break us out of the range in the immediate future. Meal is $1.80 lower and oil is flat to 10 points higher. NOPA crush came in today at 168.093 million bushels much above the 155.826 estimate. Basis remains flat overall.
The Brazilian real is recovering off of fresh lows scored yesterday and the Argentina peso is softer again at midday. The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for soybeans as well. The weekly export sales improved at -109,900 old crop, and 817,000 new, meal was 130,200 old, and 144,100 new, and 1,400 of oil.
The September chart support is the 10-day at 8.65, with the lower Bollinger Band at $8.43 below that, with the next level of resistance the 20-day at 8.75.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with Kansas City trade continuing to take the lead after being the short leg in recent trade. The corn/HRW spread is back to 32.50 today continuing to build momentum. Kansas City wheat is now back to competitive on the world market trading at a discount to the lowest offers in the most recent GASC tender.
Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter wheat just about wrapped up, with Europe continuing to move towards spring wheat harvest as well. Weekly export sales were OK at 462,200 metric tons.
The September Kansas City chart support is the new low at 3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the 4.00 area.