DTN Livestock Open: Additional Cattle Pressure Expected

Photo: Texas AgriLife Extension

Following consecutive limit losses in live cattle trade, electronic sell orders are expected to be piled up Wednesday morning. This will likely spark initial selling in the complex.

Cattle: Lower Futures: Lower Live Equiv: $145.11 +3.66*
Hogs: Mixed Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 94.07 -0.98**
* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue


Live cattle futures are expected to open lower once again due to limit losses on Tuesday that stalled trade and left additional sell orders on the table, waiting to be filled. Pressure the last two trading sessions has left the complex oversold on a technical and fundamental level, which may spark aggressive short-covering once the bearish market momentum slows.

The sharp losses the last two trading sessions in corn trade should not be overlooked, especially in feeder cattle trade. Feeder cattle attempted to rebound Tuesday morning in deferred futures in reaction to the lower production costs, but until market stability can be established following the recent plummet in live cattle and feeder cattle prices, buyers are going to remain on the sidelines.

Expanded trading limits are once again in effect, limiting live cattle moves to $4.50 per cwt, and feeder cattle to $6.75 per cwt. Cash cattle trade remains undeveloped at this point, although packer interest is expected Wednesday. Initial bids and asking prices are likely to be delayed until the price free fall slows.

Choice beef cuts posted a record one-day high Tuesday, up $7.74 per cwt. The rally in wholesale beef values is creating significant incentives not only for Tyson, but all other packers to push the envelope at all other plants in order to take advantage of the increased margins available this week.

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