WASDE Oilseeds: U.S. Soybean Production Lowered

U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forecast at 75.9 million acres, down 3.4 million from the NASS June Acreage Report led by reductions for Ohio and South Dakota. These States account for almost half of the national reduction.

The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 48.5 bushels per acre is unchanged from last month but 3.1 bushels below last year’s level. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies for 2019/20 are projected at 4.77 billion bushels, down 3 percent from last month.

U.S. soybean exports are reduced 100 million bushels to 1.78 billion reflecting reduced global import demand, mainly for China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 755 million bushels, down 40 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $8.40 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal and oil price forecasts are also unchanged at $300 per short ton and 29.5 cents per pound, respectively.

Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million.

This month’s 2019/20 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a lower area and yield for France.

India’s soybean and peanut harvested area is reduced due to slow planting progress to date. Ukraine’s sunflowerseed production is forecast higher, as timely rainfall in late July and early August boosted yield prospects.

Global 2019/20 oilseed exports are reduced 3.0 million tons mainly on a 2-million-ton reduction to soybean trade. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecting lower soybean meal crush in 2019/20. With crush also lowered in 2018/19, China’s protein meal consumption growth is forecasted flat in 2019/20.

Global 2019/20 soybean ending stocks are lower relative to last month due to lower stocks in the United States and China.

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