Dossett on Rice: Waiting for the WASDE Wild Card

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Cash Market

Rice Prices moved up $10 MT in Thailand this week to $430 MT for White 5%. Prices in India went the other direction on Wednesday as new Paddy rice arrived. New Delhi rice was lowered by 1%.

Reuters is reporting that floods have washed away 400,000 tons of rice in Bangladesh. Those floods killed 108 people and affected 6 million people. So it looks like Bangladesh will be back in the import market soon.

Thailand is getting some rain today and the past few days but needs much more to not have yield reductions.

The Philippines has banned imports during harvest to support their own rice farmers. That made Vietnam’s rice prices decline.

Typhoon Lekima will make landfall at Wenzhou, China today. Typhoon Krosa is still in the west pacific moving towards China.


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Missouri and Mississippi look to get rain during next week, Northeast Arkansas is getting rain today on Friday, August 9th. Rice harvest is underway in Texas and LA. Yields are all over the board. Some growers are relieved but others are having fears confirmed about the yields.

Milling yields are still a question mark. Cash prices are holding @ $11.50 CWT. Exports this week were great at 97,700 MT, with 77,100 MT being Long Grain Rough. Accumulated exports for 2018/2019 were up 9% from prior year’s total.

Futures Market

Normally rice futures have a big drop 1-2 weeks before FND. This month we saw the drop start a full month before FND. Of course most people are uncertain about the USDA WASDE on Monday, August 12th.

We were disappointed to hear that NASS did not resurvey rice acres as they did corn, soybeans and cotton. Rice futures are oversold. We believe there are 600,000 acres of Prevent Plant rice in the 5 long grain states. I do not know what WASDE will show, that is always a wild card! We will get surveyed yields on September 12th. I believe demand will stay strong and with supply reduced, I will stay bullish on the rice futures market.

Markham B. Dossett was a charter member of the New Orleans Commodity Exchange. He has traded rice since early 1981.  He owns Talon Asset Management, LLC where he hedges rice, soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton and cattle for producers in the South and Southwest. 

** Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.

 


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