December corn gained back 4 3/4 cents Tuesday, staying within the same sideways trading range for well over a month as traders continue to guess the size of this year’s new crop. November soybeans were down 2 cents and September KC wheat ended up 2 1/4 cents after a quiet day of narrow range trading.
Midday: Flat to lower trade at midday after early gains fade.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed with light buying after the poor start to the week with a slight condition decline while spread trade has weakened this a.m. Trade has gotten fairly oversold as well.
Higher temps look to return later in the week but nothing extreme. Ethanol margins will remain tight with plentiful supply and summer driving season coming to an end and ethanol futures just above $1.45 a gallon. World feed grain harvest will keep exports limited in the near term.
Basis has started to moderate in some areas as well with harvest starting in the SE U.S. Weekly crop progress showed 57% good to excellent, and 13% poor to very poor, down 1 percentage point on the week. 35% of the crop was silking vs. 66% on average, with 5% in the dough, vs. 10% on average.
On the September nearby chart, support is the fresh low at $4.18 with the 100-day below that at $4.04, with resistance the 50-day at $4.28.
Soybean trade is flat 2 cents lower with early gains fading again with soybeans remaining in show-me mode on trade rumors with choppy action likely to continue. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil is flat to 10 points higher. World export demand remains slow, with the real still cheap as it has been unable to sustain gains vs. the dollar.
Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and podfill season with weekly crop progress showing conditions unchanged at 54% good to excellent, and 12% poor to very poor with 40% blooming vs. 66% on average, 7% setting pods vs. 28% on average.
The September chart support is the 50-day at 8.85, with the next level up the 100-day at 8.96 which we closed just below with the 10 and 20-day the next round at $8.99, with 200-day at $9.16 the next level up.
Wheat trade is 2 to 4 cents higher with trade trying to build footing amid oversold conditions and spillover pressure from the row crops this week. The Kansas City/Chicago spread has narrowed below 60 cents Monday with trade touching 56 this a.m. The corn/HRW spread is back to near a dime at midday.
The warmer weather should allow harvest to progress to move to the home stretch for winter wheat with spring wheat just around the corner, while Europe makes progress with good yields in France, while the Black Sea and Russia continues to see mixed yields as harvest rolls on. The dollar is above 97 on the index with firmer action to open the week after the debt ceiling deal.
Weekly crop progress had winter wheat 69% vs 79% on average, with spring wheat conditions steady at 76% good to excellent and 4% poor to very poor and heading at 92% vs. 94% on average.
The September KC chart support is the recent low at $4.26 with the first resistance the 10-day at 4.45, with the 100-day at 4.50 the next round up.