December corn dropped 9 cents Monday, barely avoiding the double-digit losses seen in soybeans and winter wheat as the latest seven-day forecast expects mild summer temperatures across much of the Midwest. The September U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.09, but other commodities were mixed to mostly higher.
Midday: Broadly lower trade to start the week.
Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade going back to test support coming out of the weekend with a cold front bringing rains to many. Warmer temps look to return later in the week but nothing extreme.
Ethanol margins will remain tight with plentiful supply and summer driving season coming to an end and ethanol futures just above $1.45 a gallon. Harvest should be on the downhill slide for Brazil with more signs of imports into the SE U.S., with mixed world conditions and plentiful feed wheat available.
Basis has started to moderate in some areas as well, with intramonth spreads firmer this morning. Weekly export inspections were soft at 438,045 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions with maturity gaining but still behind normal.
On the September nearby chart, support is at the 50-day at $4.27 which we are just below at midday with the 100-day below that at $4.03, with resistance the 10 and 20-day at $4.36.
Soybean trade is 8 to 11 cents lower with trade fading back from the trade optimism gains from Friday at midday. Meal is 1.50 to 2.50 lower, and oil is 15 to 25 lower. World export demand remains slow, with the real still cheap as it has been unable to sustain gains vs. the dollar.
Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and podfill season with weekly crop progress expected to show steady conditions, and maturity gaining a little. Weekly export inspections were soft at 559,542 metric.
The September chart support is the 50-day at 8.82, with the next level up the 100-day at 8.96 which we are holding at midday, with the 20-day the next round at $9.00, which we are right at overnight, with 200-day at $9.16 the next level up.
Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents lower with trade following the lead of the row crops yet again. The Kansas City/Chicago spread has narrowed slightly overnight. The corn/HRW spread is wider as well.
The warmer weather should allow harvest to progress to move to the home stretch for winter wheat with spring wheat just around the corner, while Europe makes progress with good yields in France, while the Black Sea and Russia continues to see mixed yields as harvest rolls on. The dollar is just below 97 on the index with firmer action to open the week.
Weekly export inspections are expected to be in the 300,000 to 450,000 metric ton range. Weekly crop progress should put winter wheat harvest around 72-75% complete, with spring wheat conditions steady and heading closing in on 90%.
The September Kansas City chart support is the recent low at $4.31 with the first resistance the 10-day at $4.45, with the 100-day at $4.50 the next round up.