6:00 a.m. CME Globex: December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel, November soybeans are up 3 1/4 cents, and September K.C. wheat is up 2 3/4 cents.
CME Globex Recap: Global equity markets are higher as we close in on the July Federal Reserve meeting on July 30-31 with expectations at 100% for a 25 basis point (bp) cut in benchmark rates. In fact, expectations have risen as high as 58% for a 50 bp cut from just a 6% chance earlier this week. A 50 bp cut would seem extreme considering employment figures remain strong, and despite the trade tiff with China, the U.S. economy still appears strong.
In grains, most contracts are higher to close what has been a negative week of trade. After opening strong on threatening maps Sunday, forecasts have improved and markets have extracted premium. There is still a lot of grass between the ball and the hole, but it would appear the current ranges in our space will hold until the calendar flips to August or the next WASDE report dials in supply-side data. The weaker trade Thursday felt like the first time bulls had actually entertained the idea seasonal highs could be in, although a couple days of strength likely keeps bulls fed.
OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.12 at 27,222.97 and the S&P 500 up 10.69 at 2,984.42 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 2.038%. Early Friday, the September DJIA futures are up 39 points.
Asian markets are higher with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 420.75 (2%) and China’s Shanghai Composite up 2302 points (0.79%). European markets are higher with London’s FTSE 100 up 3.82 points (0.05%), Germany’s DAX up 17.28 points (0.14%) and France’s CAC 40 up 0.51 points (0.01%).
The September Euro is down 0.003 at 1.130 and the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.246 at 96.695. The September 30-Year T-Bond is down 3/32nds, while August gold is up $10.90 at $1,439.00 and August crude oil is up $0.69 at $55.99. Soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange were up 0.09% while soybean meal was -0.49%.