After being pummeled for days, the market had become so speculatively oversold that it was time for a snap up. Thus, the December cotton finished with triple-digit gains Friday. Coming into this third week of July, the market was down 4.00 cents on the month. Friday it will finish some 3.00 cents lower on the month but higher week-over-week.
It is no secret that the speculators are heavily short the futures; in fact, they are record short. Next week they will attempt to defend their position by selling into established overhead resistance. On Monday, USDA will offer up another weekly look at the general condition of the crop. Last week, the market saw a 56% good-to-excellent rating for the crop, but the weather situation of late has been dry and brutally hot in some areas. Thus, Monday’s rating may have the crop easing backwards.
The 2018-19 crop is quickly fading. Officially, it ends on July 31, and with that the transition from old crop to new crop. So, there may be some interesting dynamics in the export-sales markets as 2018-19 passes the marketing baton to the 2019-20 season. To that end, China has been detrimentally absent in the cash business. Therefore, it speaks bearish volumes when the price of cotton is so near the 60-cent level and export-sales remain muted.
For Friday, December Cotton closed at 63.07 cents, up 1.36 cents, March finished at 63.98 cents, up 1.10 cent and December 2020 ended at 65.73 cents, up 0.51 cent. Estimated volume was 22,300 contracts.