DTN Grain Midday: Broad Weakness in Corn

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

Corn is the downside leader with broad weakness at midday.

CORN

Corn trade is 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with better than expected rains and little fresh bullish news to support the market near term. Warm weather will linger in the near term, but better than expected rains have shown up in spots. Ethanol margins will remain tight with plentiful supply and summer driving season coming to an end and ethanol futures back below $1.45 a gallon.

Harvest should be on the downhill slide for Brazil with more signs of imports into the SE U.S., with mixed conditions elsewhere. Basis has started to moderate in some areas as well, with intramonth spreads firmer even with the weakness this a.m. The weekly export sales remain disappointing at 200,009 metric tons of old crop, and 132,997 of new crop.

On the September nearby chart, support is at the 50-day at $4.25 which we have tested this morning with resistance the 10-day at $4.39, which we tested but did not hold.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday, following the lead of the corn with some moments of two sided trade. Meal is flat to 1.00 lower, and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Crush margins have narrowed but remain positive.

World export demand remains slow, with the ral still cheap vs. the dollar with some gains overnight. Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and podfill season. The weekly export sales remain soft at 127,890 metric tons of old crop, 198,327 of new, 65,827 metric tons of old crop meal, 149,500 of new crop meal, and 12,193 of oil.

The September chart support is the 50-day at 8.82, with the next level up the 100-day at 8.97, with the 20-day the next round at $9.01.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is flat to 8 cents lower with early strength fading again as harvest continues along with pressure from the row crops. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is slightly narrower this a.m. The corn/HRW spread has narrowed as well.

The warmer weather should allow harvest to progress to move to the home stretch, while Europe makes progress, and the Black Sea continues to see mixed yields as harvest rolls on. The dollar is just below 97 on the index with weaker action today. Weekly export sales remain soft at 347,920 metric tons.

The September Kansas City chart support is the recent low at $4.32 with the first resistance the 10-day at 4.47, which we failed to hold with the 100-day at 4.51 the next round up.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 120 lower. The dollar index is 5 lower. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are lower with crude 1.90 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold 3.10 higher.

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