The cotton market posted a new low and new low close Thursday amid disappointing exports-sales. Of course, such bearish action of making life-of-contract lows has become quite the habit for the market. To that end, there has been a daily pattern of rising open interest with declining volume. Our interpretation of that behavior suggests speculators continued to build upon their record net position, but ever quietly so given the low volume.
It has to be disconcerting to the traders that the market is not generating strong sales with prices in the proverbial basement. However, on Thursday there was no sign of China, in either crop year. Of course, her inaction may be more political, than lack in need. Still, it remains active with her domestic auctions. Thursday’s state reserves auction saw some 10,700 metric tons, or 48,715 bales, sold for its domestic consumption.
The market is also aware of the slow pace of monsoonal activity over India. Currently, monsoonal rains are some 20% off India’s 50-year average, which obviously is not helping with her massive water crisis. In addition, both Pakistan and China are allegedly experiencing crop adversities of their own. Yet, the current robust U.S. crop seems to be some of an offset to the problems areas.
For Thursday, December cotton settled at 61.71 cents down 0.78 cent, March 62.88 cents, down 0.74 cent and December 2020 finished at 65.22 cents, down 0.28 cent. Estimated volume was 19,100 contracts. Thursday marks the one-year anniversary of writing DTN’s cotton commentary. If subscribers have any complaints, criticisms, complements, or suggestions, please direct them to me or DTN.