November soybeans closed down 5 1/2 cents Wednesday in spite of row crops in the central Midwest facing four days of extremely high temperatures before more moderate summer weather returns early next week. September KC wheat was down 4 1/2 cents and December corn ended up a quarter cent on a day when most other commodities were trading lower.
Midday: Row crops have some light buying at midday, with wheat drifting sideways.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade unable to sustain either end of the range so far. The forecast will continue to draw attention as more of the crop pollinates with mostly dry conditions expected to continue with the second week cooler for a few days with the forecasts still moving around a bit.
Ethanol margins will remain poor with production up 19,000 barrels per day, and stocks up 356,000 barrels keeping supplies burdensome. Harvest should be on the downhill slide for Brazil with more signs of imports into the SE U.S., with mixed conditions elsewhere.
Basis remains very strong across a variety of areas, especially the East with intramonth spreads steady today. There has been some talk of 7-8 million acres prevent plant out of the RMA today.
On the September nearby chart support is at the 50-day at $4.23 with further resistance the 10-day at $4.39, which we tested but did not hold.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade seeing light buying return after the early week selling. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher with oil 10 to 20 points higher. Crush margins remain positive with meal still holding around $310 a ton.
World export demand remains slow, with the real still cheap vs. the dollar. Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and podfill season with talk of 2-3 million acres of prevent plant from the RMA.
The September chart support is the 50-day at 8.80, with the next level up the 100-day at 8.97 which we are just below at midday, with the 20-day the next round at $9.04.
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed with early strength fading again as harvest continues. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is 2 wider this a.m. The corn/HRW spread has widened again this morning as well.
The warmer weather should allow harvest to progress to move to the home stretch, while Europe makes progress, and the Black Sea continues to see mixed yields with Russian estimates moving lower again this week. The dollar is just below 97 on the index with weaker action today.
The September Kansas City chart support is the recent low at $4.39 with the first resistance the 10-day at 4.48, which we are just above overnight with the 100-day at 4.51 the next round up.