DTN Grain Midday: Broadly Weaker Trade

Corn field. Photo: University of Minnesota

Broadly weaker trade at midday with the forecast remaining in flux.

CORN

Corn trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with selling continuing after the improvement in forecast and crop conditions ahead of the late-week heat, although trade was able to firm off the lows. The forecast will continue to draw attention as more of the crop pollinates with mostly dry conditions expected to continue with the second week cooler for most and some showers today. Ethanol margins will remain tight with futures slipping this morning. Harvest should be on the downhill slide for Brazil with more signs of imports into the SE U.S., with mixed conditions elsewhere.

Basis remains very strong across a variety of areas, especially the East with intramonth spreads softer to start the week. Mexico is considering subsidies to promote domestic production coming forward as well. Weekly crop progress showed 58% good to excellent, 12% poor to very poor, up 1 percentage point on the week, silking was 17% vs. 42% on average.

On the September nearby chart support is at the 50-day at $4.22 with further resistance the 10-day at $4.38.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with a lack of a demand story continuing to limit upside. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower with oil 10 to 20 points lower. Crush margins remain positive with meal and oil regaining the lead today but NOPA crush came in 5 million bushels below expectations at 149 million.

World export demand remains slow, with the real setting back sharply today to hinder export ability. Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and podfill season. Weekly crop progress was up 1 percentage point at 54% good to excellent, and 12% poor to very poor, with 95% emerged vs. 100% on average, and 22% blooming vs. 49% on average.

The September chart support is the 50-day at 8.80, with the next level up the 100-day at 8.97 which we fell below overnight.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents lower with trade following the lead of the row crops today with some light two sided trade at times. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is steady this morning. The corn/HRW spread has widened again this morning.

The warmer weather should allow harvest to progress to move to the home stretch, while Europe makes progress, and the Black Sea continues to see mixed yields with Russian estimates moving lower again this week. The dollar is just below 97 on the index with firmer action today. Weekly crop progress showing wheat harvest at 57% vs. 71% on average, with spring wheat 76% good to excellent, and 4% poor to very poor, down 2 percentage points, with 78% headed vs. 87% on average.

The September Kansas City chart support is the recent low at $4.39 with the first resistance the 10-day at 4.46 1/2, which we are just above at midday.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are flat with the Dow 6 higher. The dollar index is 39 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are flat with crude $0.05 lower. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold $1.50 lower.

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