DTN Grain Midday: Forecast Hits Futures

Pivot irrigation in corn - rainbow. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

Trade broadly lower at midday with heat expected for the Corn Belt.

CORN

Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade fading as the a.m. weather forecast shifted a bit from the weekend runs that had trade gap higher to open Sunday night. The forecast will be watched closely all day with more corn heading into pollination. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure with the rebound in corn values and the back half of summer driving season with futures fading along with corn today. Harvest should be on the downhill slide for Brazil, with mixed conditions elsewhere.

Basis remains very strong across a variety of areas, especially the East with intramonth spreads softer to start. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 676,485 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions and lagging maturity with warmer temps helping to close the gap somewhat.

On the September nearby chart support is at the 20-day at $4.43 with further resistance the recent high at $4.60 then the upper Bollinger Band at $4.67.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 6 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade fading again as the forecast potentially shifted and the continued lack of a demand story. Meal is 2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is flat to 10 points higher. Crush margins remain positive with meal and oil regaining the lead today. World export demand remains slow, with the real remaining near the upper end of the range and gaining ground again overnight.

Weather will come into focus more as we head towards August and podfill season. Weekly export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 854,373 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions, and maturity still lagging.

The September chart support is the 20-day at 9.06, with the next level up the 200-day at 9.16.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 10 to 12 cents lower at midday with trade following the lead of the row crops this morning. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is slightly wider this a.m. The corn/HRW spread has narrowed again this morning. The warmer weather should allow harvest to progress to move to the home stretch, while Europe makes progress, and the Black Sea continues to see mixed yields with Russian estimates moving lower last week. The dollar is below 97 on the index with slightly firmer action today.

Weekly export inspections are expected at 315,358 metric tons, with weekly crop progress showing wheat harvest past 60% for winter wheat, and steady spring wheat conditions.

The September Kansas City chart, support is the 50-day at $4.62 which we are back below at midday then the 50-day at 4.53, with resistance the recent at high at 4.69.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are flat with the Dow 30 lower. The dollar index is 15 higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat with crude 0.05 lower. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold 1.50 higher.

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