WASDE Rice: Lower U.S. Ending Stocks, Increased Demand

Sunrise over rice field at flood. ©Debra L Ferguson

The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice is for increased supplies, higher domestic use and exports, and lower ending stocks. All rice supplies are raised this month by 4.9 million cwt to 289.5 million. All rice production increased by 10.6 million cwt to 208.7 million with long-grain production raised 12.6 million cwt on a higher harvested area than previously estimated.

Combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered 2.0 million cwt on reduced harvested area. Partly offsetting the production increase is a 5.7-million-cwt decrease in beginning stocks. The NASS Rice Stocks report implied significantly higher domestic and residual use than previously estimated for the 2018/19 marketing year, which resulted in lower 2019/20 beginning stocks.

All rice exports for 2018/19 are also raised 2.0 million cwt (all long-grain) to 92.0 million, the result of a strong recent export pace. Total rice use for 2019/20 is increased 6.0 million cwt to 239.0 million on a 5.0-million-cwt increase in domestic and residual use and a 1.0-million-cwt increase in exports.

All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.1 million cwt to 50.5 million, and the season-average farm price for all rice is raised $0.10 per cwt to $11.80.

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Global 2019/20 rice supplies are raised fractionally on both higher beginning stocks and production. The higher 2019/20 beginning stocks stem from several 2018/19 changes including a 0.4-million-ton production decrease, a 0.9-million-ton consumption decrease, and a 0.2-million-ton increase in beginning stocks.

The small 2019/20 production increase is the result of a 0.3-million-ton increase in U.S. production that is partially offset by a 0.1-million-ton decrease for Brazil. Global 2019/20 exports are lowered fractionally to 46.9 million tons. With global supplies rising more than use, world ending stocks are increased 0.8 million tons to a record 172.7 million.

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