This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include lower beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are reduced with higher 2018/19 residual use more than offsetting lower crush and seed use. Residual use for 2018/19 is raised based on indications in the June 28 Grain Stocks report combined with crush and export data through May.
Soybean production for 2019/20 is projected at 3.845 billion bushels, down 305 million based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28 Acreage report and on lower projected yields. Harvested area, forecast at 79.3 million acres, is down 4.5 million from last month. With planting progress significantly behind in many states, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will collect updated information on 2019 area planted, and if the newly collected information justifies changes, updated acreage estimates will be published by NASS in the August Crop Production report.
The soybean yield is forecast at 48.5 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel based on delayed planting progress throughout the major producing states. Soybean exports are reduced 75 million bushels to 1.875 billion reflecting reduced supplies and increased competition from South American exporters. With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2019/20 are projected at 795 million bushels compared with 1.045 billion last month.
The 2019/20 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.40 per bushel, up 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal prices are forecast at $300 per short ton, up 5 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound.
The 2019/20 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is projected at 586.0 million tons, down 11.7 million mostly on lower soybean production for the United States. Soybean production is also reduced for Canada and Ukraine. Rapeseed production is reduced for the EU, Australia, and Canada.
Hot, dry weather during June has reduced yield prospects for the EU. Production is reduced for both Australia and Canada on lower harvested area. Other production changes include lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, higher cottonseed production for India, and lower peanut production for the United States.
Global oilseed exports for 2019/20 are projected at 175.0 million tons, down slightly from last month. Lower soybean exports for the United States are offset with increases for Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2019/20 are reduced 10.7 million tons to 119.5 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States, Argentina, and Brazil.