DTN Livestock Midday: Hog Markets Rally

Photo: NCRS

Triple-digit gains quickly move into lean hog trade as traders push prices off of 10-month lows. This is helping to rekindle a sense of market stability near $75 per cwt. Cattle futures remain mixed following choppy morning price swings.

General Comments

Active buyer support moved into lean hog futures trade with triple-digit support holding at midday. Although prices have backed away from session highs in cattle and hog futures, traders are trying to rebuild market support at current price levels.

Corn futures are higher in light trade. July corn futures are 2 3/4 cents higher. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 48 points lower with NASDAQ down 52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Mixed trade is seen at midday following a failed attempt to spark strong renewed buyer support through the entire live cattle complex. June futures are leading the complex higher with a 37 cnet per cwt rally as traders continue to quickly exit June contracts as markets are nearing expiration.

The rest of the complex is stuck in a narrowly mixed range of 10 cents lower to 5 cents higher as traders appear to be treading water at current price levels, given the extreme market pressure seen in all livestock trade over the last week.

Cash cattle activity remains generally sluggish with a few bids developing through the morning. Live bids are seen at $107 per cwt, with dressed bids in the North at $174 to $175 per cwt. Asking prices are still undefined, and may remain that way through the end of the day. Trade is likely to be pushed to the last half of the week, although the potential for limited live trade in the South midweek could still be seen.

Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.52 lower (select) and down $0.36 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 95 total loads reported (55 loads of choice cuts, 24 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 9 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have bounced higher and lower in a narrow to moderate range Tuesday. The initial move higher focused on firming support in live cattle trade as well as short covering.

But buyer interest seemed to quickly run out of steam, leaving prices to erode late morning, setting additional contact lows at midday. It is expected that trade volume will remain light through the end of the session, leaving prices hovering in light to moderate losses near closing bell.

LEAN HOGS:

Following two days of aggressive losses, buyers stepped back into the complex, pushing prices higher Tuesday morning. Firm support has held through the morning, although midday prices have backed away from session highs due to general lack of market buyer support willing to move into the still weak market structure.

Traders are cautiously focusing on the market rally Tuesday, making sure that there is longer term substance behind the move higher, and not just a one day rally based on short covering. Continued technical pressure still exists, while fundamentals have yet to show signs of support during late June.

Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.59 at $71.92 per cwt with the range from $63 to $75 on 5,276 head reported sold.

Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report.

Pork values shifted lower once again as pork values continue to bounce higher and lower on a daily basis. Pork cutouts fell $0.50 per cwt at $76.83 per cwt with 212 loads traded. Lean hog index for 6/21 is $78.65, down 0.49, with a projected two-day index is $78.31, down 0.34.

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