November soybeans dropped 6 1/4 cents Tuesday, in spite of low crop ratings from USDA as traders look ahead to what else USDA might say in Friday’s reports. December corn edged higher and September contracts of wheat were mixed.
Midday: Trade has faded back to mixed action at midday.
Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with firmness following the conditions report Monday afternoon. The forecast looks to trend towards warmer and drier into July which will be needed to boost growth. Ethanol margins remain tight with blender margins getting a boost from the surge in crude values with the Iran tensions with flat ethanol to firmer futures to start the week.
Weekly crop progress was 96% planted vs. 100% last year, and at the high end of expectations, emergence was 89% vs. 99% on average, and 56% was rated good to excellent, down 2 percentage points on the week, and 10% poor to very poor, which is the among the lowest on record for this week of the year.
Corn basis remains on a firmer trend, especially for the Eastern Belt. On the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.46, with the 20-day at $4.34 below there. Resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $4.61.
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade unable to sustain gains after the crop progress report. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal regaining the lead to start the week. World export demand remains slow, with the ral remaining near the upper end of the range but still cheap vs. the dollar.
Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas with days now getting shorter for soybean growth. The weekly crop progress showed 85% planted vs. 97% on average, just below expectations with 71% emerged vs. 91% on average, and 54% good to excellent and 10% poor to very poor for the initial condition report.
The July chart support is the 200-day at $9.07 which we are moved back above Monday, then the recent high at $9.21, with further support the 100-day at $8.94.
Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents higher at with harvest for winter wheat expected to remain slow. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is flat to slightly tighter for Kansas City this a.m. The heavy rains from this weekend will keep harvest slow with a warmer week likely to get combines rolling in a bigger way towards the weekend.
The dollar is below 96 on the index with the post Fed slide slowing this morning. Black Sea area weather remains mixed with world values soft and short term heat in place. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front.
Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat at 61% good to excellent, and 11% poor to very poor, down 3% with 94% headed vs. 99% on average, and harvest 15% complete vs. 34% on average. Spring wheat was 75% good to excellent, and 3% poor to poor, down 2 percentage points, and heading at 7% vs. 29% on average.
On the July KC chart support is the 10-day and 20-day at $4.63-4.64 with resistance again the upper Bollinger Band at 4.84.