The cotton market managed a fractional higher close Tuesday, defying what could have been a bearish turnaround Tuesday event. Volume was super slow at 16,400 contracts. Primarily the market has its eyes on the Trump/Xi meeting, which we now understand will take place on Saturday.
Of course, who knows what may or may not happen at this gathering. At this point, just an agreement to resume the negotiations would help trade. Thus, Sunday night’s opening will be keenly anticipated.
As far as Friday’s All Acres Report from USDA, estimates are a tough call. Subscribers will remember the disparity between the guesses for the March intentions, and the actual intentions themselves. They were way below the lowest guess. Still, producers have shared that no matter the amount of acres, it will not equate to a textbook yield.
Generally speaking, much of the national crop is late planted, putting much of it in jeopardy of an early season frost. Such an event would turn the tables on U.S. supply.
Spot July remains in its delivery process, and while that event does not directly affect the new crop, it can have a lingering influence in terms of mid-summer demand. Yet, the trend of cotton is stalwartly bearish. Trend-following speculators are heavily short, and absent of any positive late week fundamental news, they may attempt to press the downside into early Calendar July.
July cotton closed at 62.20 cents, down 0.10 cent, December settled at 65.72 cents, up 0.03 cent and March 2020 cotton went out at 66.47 cents, up 0.03 cent.