DTN Grain Midday: Markets Eye Friday Reports

Corn stunted from waterlogged conditions. Photo: Paul Kassel, Iowa State University

Trade is firmer across the board at midday; the market is looking toward the big USDA Planting and Stocks reports this Friday.


Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade chopping along range bound with positioning for active week of reports. The forecast looks to trend towards warmer and drier into July after extensive rains in many areas this weekend. Ethanol margins remain tight with blender margins getting a boost from the surge in crude values with the Iran tensions with flat ethanol futures this morning.

The trade continues to debate acreage losses and the yield effects of the late wet planting conditions that will keep uncertainty in this market for the growing season with the weekly crop progress report giving another data point today, with steady conditions expected, emergence well behind normal, and planting effectively complete. The weekly export inspections continue to soften; they were at 617,740 metric tons.

Corn basis remains on a firmer trend, especially for the Eastern Belt. On the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.43 5/8, with the 20-day at $4.33 below there. Resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $4.59.


Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade still lingering near the upper end of the range as planting time winds down. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 higher and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal trying to regain the lead to start the week.

World export demand remains slow, and the South American currencies cheap but firming again with the real trying to consolidate over 26. Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for soybeans before potential more open weather at the end of the month with trade trying to hold on to acres with November near the contract highs and more liberal forage cover crop requirements coming into play.

The weekly export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 682,155 metric tons. The weekly crop progress is expected to push planting close to 90% with first conditions around 57-60% good to excellent, and emergence well behind normal. The July chart resistance is the 200-day at $9.07 which we are testing at midday, then the recent high at $9.21, with support the 100-day at $8.94.


Wheat trade is 2 to 10 cents higher at midday with light buying as harvest delays will linger to start the week for winter wheat. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is flat this a.m. The heavy rains from this weekend will keep harvest slow with a warmer week likely to get combines rolling in a bigger way towards the weekend.

The dollar is below 96 on the index with the post Fed slide continuing. Black Sea-area weather remains mixed with world values soft. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front.

The weekly export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 406,386 metric tons. The weekly crop progress report is expected to show steady conditions with harvest moving towards 20% complete, well off the average pace, and spring wheat conditions steady to slightly lower. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.49 with resistance again the 20-day at 4.59 which we are testing at midday.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 50 higher. The dollar index is 17 weaker. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are softer with crude $0.50 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold $18.40 higher.

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