DTN Cotton Close: Higher in Sleepy Trade

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The cotton market finished meekly higher Monday, as it awaits the unfolding of several market-moving reports/events this week. One is Monday afternoon’s USDA crop progress/condition report. Last week the crop was 89% planted versus its five-year average of 94%. Monday’s data may well see a near 100% completion rate. Conditionally, last week the crop was rated 49% good-to-excellent versus last year’s case of 38% good-to-excellent.

This Thursday USDA will issue its Weekly Sales and Exports Report. Last week the data saw decent new crop sales, although old crop posted a net negative number. Next, on Friday, the government will release its planted acres report, contrasting those numbers against its prospective planting data of last March.

At that time, the planting intentions for all cotton was a surprising 13.80 million acres, including some 13.5 million acres of upland cotton. Friday’s guesses are expected to be at least that amount, or slightly more.

Spot July cotton entered its delivery Monday, with just one notice tendered so far. Term Commodities, the trading arm of a major Tennessee shipper posted the notice. July’s delivery will end on July 7.

Technically, December cotton remains in a steep downtrend. Speculators began selling the futures upon the market’s violation of the April low in early May. Since that time, the market has dropped some 13 centss, with speculators at times standing with a record net short position.

Monday, spot July closed at 62.30 cents, up 1.11 cents, December cotton settled at 65.69 cents, up 0.13 cent and March finished at 66.44 cents, up 0.05 cent. Estimated volume was 18,400, the lowest since February 27, when volume was 16,400 contracts.

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