DTN Grain Close: Row Crops Rebound on New Forecast

Corn approaching V4 stage. Photo: Paul Kassel, Iowa State University Extension

July contracts of corn, soybeans and U.S. winter wheat posted higher closes Thursday after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a cool, wet forecast for July. August gold is up $45.20 and August crude oil is up $3.06 after news broke Iran shot down a U.S. military drone.


Midday: Trade is broadly firmer at midday.i


Corn trade is 6 to 9 cents higher with buying returning during the day session as the spreads weaken slightly. The forecast looks to trend towards warmer and drier into July with near-term rains lingering in many areas. Ethanol margins are compressing this morning with ethanol futures gaining 2-3 cents while corn firms, and unleaded jumps 6 cents.

The trade continues to debate acreage losses and the yield effects of the late wet-planting conditions that will keep uncertainty in this market for the growing season. The weekly export sales remain soft at 38,400 metric tons of old crop, and 360,800 of new, and 122,000 to Mexico on the daily wire.

Corn basis remains on a firmer trend. On the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.37, with the 20-day at $4.28 below there. The new high printed Monday at $4.64 is notable chart resistance.


Soybean trade is 8 to 11 cents higher with buying returning after the choppy trade. Meal is 4.50 to 5.50 higher, and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal returning to the lead today. World export demand remains slow, and the South American currencies cheap but firming vs. the dollar after the Fed statement, with the USDA reporting 189,000 metric tons sold on the daily wire.

Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for soybeans before potential more open weather at the end of the month with trade trying to hold on to acres with November near the contract highs. The weekly export sales were better at 571,000 metric tons of old crop, and 200,000 metric tons of new, meal was 109,600 metric tons of old, and 37,700 metric tons of new.

The July chart support is the 100-day at $8.97, with next resistance the 200-day at $9.07 which we are above at midday, then the recent high at $9.21.


Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents higher at with winter wheats overcoming harvest pressure during the day session. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is swinging back to Kansas City this morning, narrowing by a penny. The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the winter wheat belt while harvest should build elsewhere, with heat expected to help push things along to the west with harvest spreading into south-central Kansas.

The dollar is testing 96 on the index with the sharp pullback after the Fed statement. Black Sea area weather remains mixed with world values soft. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front. The weekly export sales were disappointing at 187,600 metric tons.

On the July Kansas City chart support is the 100-day at $4.51 with resistance again the 20-day at 4.59, which we are just above.

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