Wheat and corn fell on Tuesday in a correction of the rally that began in mid-May. Better than expected conditions on wheat, impressive early yield data and a warmer and drier late June outlook sent that market lower. With corn planting advancing to 92% done, uncertainty over the accuracy of that number and increased prevented planting estimates led to two-sided corn trade, while recent gains have priced U.S. corn out of world markets.
Midday: Trade is mostly lower at midday, with soybeans edging back positive.
Corn trade is 5 to 7 cents lower at midday with trade firming back from dime lower trade overnight with bull spreading returning. The forecast looks to continue the recent pattern into the first part of the week, before potential pattern changes into the end of the month. Ethanol margins will remain tight, with the blenders being squeezed more, with ethanol futures at the upper end of the recent range, holding 1.62.
The weekly crop progress showed planting progress at 92% vs. 100% on average, with emergence at 79% vs. 97% on average, with 59% good to excellent, and 10% poor to very poor, up 1% from last week.
On the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.32, with the new high printed Monday at $4.64 resistance.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade fading from the initial gains after the progress report. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal just above $320, with meal softening relative to oil. NOPA crush disappointed at 154.8 million bushels.
World export demand remains slow, and the South American currencies cheap but firmer today. Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for soybeans before potential more open weather at the end of the month. Weekly crop progress showed planting at 77% vs. 93% last year, and emergence at 55% vs. 84% last year.
The July chart support is the 100-day at $8.95, with next resistance the $9.21 overnight high.
Wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents lower at midday with the winter wheats seeing bigger selling after failing to hold gains yesterday. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is swing back to Chicago again today. The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the winter wheat belt while harvest should build elsewhere, with heat expected to help push things along to the west.
The dollar moved back above 97 on the index as well. Black Sea area weather remains mixed with world values soft. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front.
Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat 64% good to excellent, and 10% poor to very poor, with 89% headed vs. 94% on average, and 8% harvested vs. 20% on average. Spring wheat was 77% good to excellent, and 2% poor to very poor, down 4% on the week, with 95% emerged vs. 97% on average.
On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.55. then the 10-day at 4.62, with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.92 as resistance.