The new crop market was slightly higher Monday as it attempted to ride higher on the strength of Chicago grains. Earlier in the day, Corn was up by a dime, beans were 20-cents higher and cotton was trading 1 cent higher. Yet, cotton had other reasons to trade up.
Technically, the market remains very oversold. Although, speculators carry a sizable net short position, they remain vulnerable to a short-covering really, if there is a late month change-of-heart attitude. Additionally, given its mid-month, some bullish bottom pickers have emerged
Monday afternoon, USDA will report on planted acres progress and the condition of the crop. Last week, acres were 75% complete and the condition was rated at 44% good-to-excellent. Still, the market has two major events yet to come: one is USDA’s Planted Acres on Friday the 28, and then the G-20 meeting on June 27. Supposedly, President Trump and President Xi will meet to discuss getting the U.S.-China trade talks back on track.
Monday’s estimated volume looks to be about 41,600 contracts traded. Later in the wee, will be weekly sales-exports this Thursday. Last week saw dismal double-digit sales for the old crop.
Another unfolding fundamental event for the market was that July cotton’s options expired Friday past. Tuesday we will know how that expiration affected the open interest. Also, between now and Friday, all on-call cotton basis the July contract will be fixed.
Overall, July cotton closed at 65.63 cents, down 0.31 cent, December cotton finished at 66.42 cents, up 0.67 cent and March ended at 66.87 cents, up 0.49 cent.