WASDE Wheat: Lower U.S. Beginning Stocks, Improved Production

Photo: Andrew Sawyer, University of Georgia

U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production. Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports. Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an increase to Hard Red Winter more than offsetting decreases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter.

Total wheat production is now forecast at 1,903 million bushels, up 5.8 million bushels from the May forecast. Exports for 2019/20 are unchanged at 900 million bushels but feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 140 million on reduced projected corn supplies.

Ending stocks are lowered 69 million bushels to 1,072 million, and the season-average farm price is raised $0.40 per bushel to $5.10. The price increase reflects sharply higher wheat futures prices and reduced 2019/20 corn supplies.

World 2019/20 wheat supplies are raised 4.9 million tons on a 1.6-million-ton increase in beginning stocks and a 3.3-million-ton increase in global production. India’s wheat crop is raised 1.2 million tons on updated government data. Production in Russia and Ukraine are each raised 1.0 million tons reflecting favorable weather to date.

Projected 2019/20 global trade is expanded 0.8 million tons with a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine, both due to larger crops. Russian exports are now projected at 37.0 million tons and Ukraine exports are projected at a record 19.5 million. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton decrease for EU exports with greater competition from Black Sea origins.

Projected 2019/20 world consumption is raised 3.6 million tons on both higher food and feed and residual use. With supplies rising more than use, ending stocks are projected up 1.3 million tons to a record 294.3 million.

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