The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use and exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected U.S. all rice production is lowered 20.1 million cwt or 9 percent to 198.1 million with all of the decrease in long-grain, primarily on a reduction in planted area.
The excessive spring precipitation in the Delta is expected to result in lower rice area in this region compared to the NASS Prospective Plantings intended acreage, issued March 29. Partially offsetting the smaller production are higher projected imports, which are raised by 1.2 million cwt to a record large 29.2 million with increases for both long-grain and medium- and short-grain.
All rice projected domestic and residual use is lowered 7.0 million cwt to 133.0 million, mainly the result of reduced long-grain supplies. Projected all rice exports are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 100.0 million. The reduction in long-grain exports on higher projected prices is partially offset by increased medium- and short-grain exports as a portion of outstanding sales from the 2018/19 market year are expected to be shifted to 2019/20.
Projected 2019/20 all rice ending stocks are lowered 7.2 million cwt to 51.6 million with long-grain accounting for all of the reduction. The projected 2019/20 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised by $0.50 per cwt to $11.70 with increases in the projected SAFPs of all rice classes this month.
Global 2019/20 rice supplies are decreased by 0.5 million tons to 667.8 million as higher carryin stocks are more than offset by lower production. Global production is down as reductions for the United States, North Korea, and Thailand are not completely offset by higher projected production for Madagascar, Egypt, and the EU.
World 2019/20 consumption is lowered fractionally to 496.0 million tons on reduced expected use in China, North Korea, and the United States more than offsetting higher use in Madagascar, Bangladesh, Burma, and Egypt.
Global 2019/20 trade is lowered 0.4 million tons to 47.2 million as reduced exports by India, Burma, and the United States are not completely offset by higher exports by China. Projected world ending stocks are adjusted lower this month to 171.9 million tons but remain record large.