WASDE Oilseeds: Higher U.S. Soybean Beginning, Ending Stocks

Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised reflecting a 75-million-bushel reduction in projected exports for 2018/19 based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and a lower import forecast for China.

Although adverse weather has significantly slowed soybean planting progress this year, area and production forecasts are unchanged with several weeks remaining in the planting season. With soybean use unchanged, 2019/20 ending stocks are projected at 1,045 million bushels, down 25 million from the revised 2018/19 projection.

Other changes for 2018/19 include increased soybean meal imports and exports, reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks.

The 2019/20 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.25 per bushel, up 15 cents reflecting the impact of higher corn prices. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound.

The 2019/20 global soybean supply and use projections include lower production and stocks compared to last month. Global production is down 0.3 million tons to 355.4 million due to lower crops for Ukraine and Zambia. The 2019/20 soybean ending stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons mainly reflecting lower carryin due to revisions to 2018/19 balance sheets.

Beginning stocks for 2019/20 are reduced for Argentina and China offsetting higher stocks for the United States. For Argentina, stocks are lowered on a 1.5-million-ton increase to exports to 7.8 million for 2018/19 based on the recent pace of shipments. Beginning stocks are lowered for China due to a 1-million-ton decrease to imports to 85 million for 2018/19.

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