WASDE Coarse Grains: Sharply Lower U.S. Corn Production

This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exports for 2018/19 to 2.2 billion bushels, based on current outstanding sales and reduced U.S. price competitiveness.

Corn production for 2019/20 is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2015/16.

Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.

With sharply lower supplies, use is projected to decline 425 million bushels to 14.3 billion, based on reductions to feed and residual use and exports. With supplies falling more than use, ending stocks are projected to decline 810 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013/14.

The season-average farm price is raised 50 cents to $3.80 per bushel.

This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, increased trade and lower stocks relative to last month. Argentina corn production is raised on increased area with higher prices. Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield with planting delays in Ontario.

Russia corn production is higher based on government data indicating larger-than-expected planted area. Barley production is lowered for the EU reflecting a reduction for Spain. For 2018/19, Brazil corn production is raised based on the latest government statistics.

Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include larger forecast corn exports for Argentina and Russia, with a partly offsetting reduction for Zambia. For 2018/19, exports are raised for Brazil and Argentina for the local marketing year beginning in March 2019 based on higher-than-expected shipments during May. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and the EU.

Full report.


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